Download e-book for kindle: Application of ARMA and GARCH models to the daily gold and by Van Anh Hoang

By Van Anh Hoang

Seminar paper from the 12 months 2016 within the topic enterprise economics - Banking, inventory Exchanges, assurance, Accounting, grade: 1,7, eu collage Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder) (Lehrstuhl Statistik), path: WS 2015/2016, language: English, summary: This paper bargains with the advance of the gold and silver costs from January 2001 until eventually January 2015 and introduces the ARMA-model from field & Jenkins for (weakly) desk bound stochastic methods and the GARCH-model from Bollerslev to version heteroscedastic time sequence. the implications, which have been got with the aid of the facts package deal R, are offered in part five and six respectively. in addition to, a forecast of the costs for either resources is made in part 7, the restrictions of the learn are offered in part eight and part nine concludes with a precis of the findings.

It is celebrated within the monetary global that either equities, silver and gold have a protracted historical past of serving as a hedge opposed to inflation, political hazard and currency trading possibility, which offer fiscal and actual protection for the traders in periods of political and monetary crises in addition to fairness marketplace crashes. This phenomenon might be saw within the 2008 monetary main issue, the place different mineral costs fell, yet purely the gold rate elevated by means of 6%. furthermore, researchers additionally convey that gold and greenback appear to be negatively similar, as in instances, whilst the greenback was once susceptible the associated fee for gold raises. therefore, gold was once came upon to be uncorrelated with different different types of resources, which results in benefits for an investor in an period of globalization.

As gold and silver resources appear to play an immense position for traders, it's of serious necessity to watch its costs and the volatility of the time sequence. The autoregressive relocating usual versions (ARMA) and the generalized autoregressive heteroscedasticity (GARCH) types grew to become well known for lecturers and practitioners and resulted in a primary swap to the procedure of analyzing monetary facts. The ARMA types were additional prolonged and an effective modelling of the volatility of the costs with GARCH types was once extra inspected by way of many researchers.

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Application of ARMA and GARCH models to the daily gold and silver exchange prices in US dollar (Aus der Reihe: stipendiaten-wissen) by Van Anh Hoang

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